Rain Underperforms Forecast from Northwest Indiana to Northwest Chicagoland

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Waxing Crescent Moon Wednesday night April 10, 2024. YouTube Tips ⓘ

Rain failed to appear overnight in northwest Chicagoland, and rain amounting to around an inch fell in northwest Indiana — falling short of a forecast predicting over 1.5 inches of rain for northwest Indiana.

Weather models (GEFS) that had put an inch of rain in the northwest suburbs and other areas of the north and west county-wide forest area were wrong. Forecasters had doubts about precipitation in northwest Chicagoland — expecting more rain around 2 inches east of I-55 and in northwest Indiana.

Northwest Indiana rainfall was about an inch with possibly 2 inches in some spots.

The area east of I-55 had light rain and drizzle.

Arlington Heights and the northwest suburbs were dry over night.

There was no dew in the morning grass, either. At 6:51 a.m. at O’Hare, air temperature was 51°F and the dew point was 44°F. Relative Humidity was 77%.

Weather Radar shows light precipitation flowing counterclockwise, and west to east over most of northern Illinois. The precipitation apparently was not making it to the ground (virga).

See also Arlingtoncardinal.com/clouds

Loyola Medicine Allergy Count for 4-10-2024
Trees – High
Grass – Low
Ragweed – Absent
Weeds – Absent
Mold – Moderate


Wednesday Night: Rain likely, mainly after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 47. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of rain before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 56. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thursday Night: Showers likely, mainly between 3am and 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 45. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Friday: Scattered showers before 7am. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 59. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 69. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 57.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 78.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 49.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 73.

Monday Night: A chance of showers, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Tuesday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Breezy.

Wednesday: A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 75.


939 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024








Chicago Weather Forecast for your MAC/PC/TABLET includes surrounding suburbs.



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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1248 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024


– Locally heavy rainfall is possible overnight into Thursday morning east of I-55 but primarily northwest Indiana. Renewed river rises are likely, with some minor areal flooding possible.

– Blustery northwest winds on Friday.

– Unseasonably warm temperatures this weekend into early next week with at least one opportunity for showers and storms.


.UPDATE… Issued at 901 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

No significant changes made to going forecast this evening.

Evening surface analysis depicts low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley, in association with a deep upper level trough centered over eastern TX. This low is forecast to lift north- northeast into the lower Ohio Valley by Thursday morning, and toward western Lake Erie by Thursday evening. As this occurs, strong moisture advection and ascent will be focused northeast of the low, along a warm frontal boundary which is progged to lift north ahead of the low track. This will result in rain spreading into especially the southeast third of the LOT cwa later tonight and Thursday. 18Z guidance has continued the trend from earlier today in taking the low slightly farther east, with the heaviest forecast rainfall of 1- 1.50″ focused generally east of the I-55 corridor and highest amounts (1.50+”) across the ILX/IND/IWX cwas. Areas northwest of I-55 will likely see lighter, more showery precipitation into Thursday morning.

Regional radar mosaic depicts rain mainly along/south of a Champaign to Rensselaer line at this hour, and this is expected to expand slowly northward overnight, reaching the southern Chicago suburbs around/after midnight tonight. Steadier rain is expected to persist into midday Thursday before shifting to the east. However, another short wave currently digging southeast across the Dakotas will bring an increase in convective showers and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms in from the west from midday into the afternoon hours.

Going forecast has all of this handled fairly well, with only some minor tweaks made to pops this evening based on radar trends along with some minor adjustments to hourly temp trends.


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