Winter Storm Intensifying in the Southwest

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US weather map Sunday evening.

An intensifying upper trough over Arizona is forecasted to continue amplifying as it makes its way over the southern Rockies Sunday evening and into late Sunday night. A 90-100 kt 500 mb jet will emerge over the southern Plains around midnight CST, helping to rapidly deepen a surface low over northeast New Mexico and the northwestern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles.

Strong low-level warm advection ahead of the surface low will aid in developing low-topped thunderstorms across West Texas and into parts of far southwest OK between 8-12z. Likely elevated above the surface stable layer, and with limited buoyancy owing to poor boundary-layer dewpoints in the 30-40s F, storms are not expected to be overly intense. However, very strong low and mid-level wind fields ahead of the trough/low my support the risk for occasional gusty/damaging winds with the line of storms. Will maintain the MRGL risk across west-central Texaswith a slight northward nudge into southwest OK for the latest CAM guidance.

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