O’HARE FORECAST …
Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. South wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Saturday: A 30 percent chance of rain after noon. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27.
Cold air continues to filter into the area early this morning off of northwesterly surface winds. Temperatures fell into the teens in some locations by 3:06 a.m., and were forecast to continue to drop until daybreak. An incoming mid-level cloud deck was expected to stunt temperature falls a bit, but not by enough to prevent this morning from becoming the coldest morning this winter thus far for many with low temperatures ranging from around 10 degrees Fahrenheit across the northwestern part of the County Wide Area to the low-mid 20s in northwest Indiana, where lake enhancement has allowed yesterday’s stratocumulus deck to hang around a little longer than in other areas. Winds are also on the downturn, but are still at a sufficient strength for morning wind chills to bottom out in the single digits throughout most of the County Wide Area. Winds were calm in Arlington Heights around 3:00 a.m.
The morning chill will set the stage for a seasonably cool, but otherwise uneventful Friday. Temperatures are about 10°F below normal temperatures for the date. Highs will peak in the low-mid 30s as northwest winds continue to weaken and eventually turn southerly by late afternoon as a surface ridge axis traverses the region. Cloud cover will also gradually increase through the day and into this evening within a surge of mid-level moisture and warm advection driven by our next incoming weather system.
The weather system is still developing over the southern Canadian Prairies, but will eventually dig southeastward as an increasingly amplifying shortwave with an associated surface low whose center will track across or just north of our County Wide Area Saturday afternoon. Thermal profiles would seem to favor this being a mostly rain event for the entire forecast area, though there is potential for at least a few snowflakes to mix in with the rain near the Illinois-Wisconsin state line. Some snow is especially likely if the surface low ends up taking a path that is currently on the southern end of the envelope of plausible forecast solutions. If the low tracks more to our north, then it’s entirely possible that much of the area could remain dry on Saturday with much of the forcing necessary for sufficient top-down saturation remaining to our north as well. Global guidance seems to hint at the idea of a band of rain developing somewhere south of the surface low track in either scenario, so that’s where most of any precipitation would come from in a scenario featuring a more northerly track, though some short range/hi-res guidance isn’t quite as high on that idea at this time. Regardless, QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts) appears to be on the lighter end of the spectrum, so little to no impacts are expected with this clipper-like system.
— NWS Chicago with CARDINAL NEWS edits
Frost, frozen ground.
Weather Radar shows some minor precipitation moving northwest to southeast in northwest Illinois (west of Interstate 39) at 6:15 a.m..
NOTE: As of Nov. 23, 2021, National Weather Service feeds with hourly observations are broken. New hourly observations are stalled. A link in the most recent tweet, refers to an updated table with hourly observations with the correct data.
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