Winter Storm Watch Late Wednesday Night to Early Thursday Evening

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US Weather Map for 6 AM CT Thursday Feb. 17, 2022 to 6 AM CT Friday Feb. 18, 2022 (SOURCE: DOC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Weather Prediction Center/Asherman WPC/SPC/NHC forecasts)
US Weather Map for 6 AM CT Thursday Feb. 17, 2022 to 6 AM CT Friday Feb. 18, 2022 (SOURCE: DOC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Weather Prediction Center/Asherman WPC/SPC/NHC forecasts).

Significant rainfall and snowfall is forecast for Arlington Heights and surrounding communities Wednesday February 16, 2022 and Thursday, respectively with the hourly forecast indicating …

0.77 inches of rain from noon Wednesday until 3 AM Thursday,

0.01 or less inches of freezing rain from 3 AM to 4 AM Thursday, and

5.00 inches of snow from 3 AM to 9 PM Thursday.

Precipitation totals have trended downward slightly on the hourly forecast since this morning’s outlook 8:45 a.m. Guidance might be indicating the track is trending slightly south; however the center of the GFS track is still centered over the northwest suburbs. The track for the ECMWF (European Model) is still considerably further south (around Champaign), Illinois compared to the GFS (United States Model).

Map shows snow cover and GFS data. Tap an area to get forecast model inches of snow depth (new snow) for specific areas. The 3:30 p.m. Tuesday look at the GFS still showed about 10″ accumulation of snow for Arlington Heights for the upcoming storm Wednesday and Thursday. The hourly forecast around Arlington Heights indicates about 5 inches of snow.

The main event beginning during the daylight hours Wednesday will be the expected strong south-southwest winds beginning this evening and continuing through most of the day Wednesday. A 70kt Lower Level Jet will quickly develop over northern Illinois this evening in tandem with a strengthening surface pressure gradient in advance of low pressure taking shape over the central High Plains. While some diurnal stability will develop tonight, the magnitude of surface decoupling should be subdued by the cirrus shield and overall strength of the low-level flow. Expectations are for frequent S/SSW gusts around 30 mph late Tuesday evening through daybreak Wednesday. Meanwhile, the associated strong Warm Air Advection (temps rising into the 40s overnight) and moisture advection will act on eroding some of the remaining snow cover.




According to the NWS Chicago, 60 knot low-level winds will persist well into Wednesday as low-level moisture surges into the area. Meanwhile, stratus will quickly develop and expand over the County Warning Area. This leads to lower confidence on the ability for full mixing into stronger winds aloft. However, with 50 knot winds down to 1.5kft mid-morning into the afternoon, little mixing will be needed to attain frequent gusts over 40 mph. NWS Chicago held off on the issuance of a Wind Advisory for the southeast half of the County Warning Area, but some gusts to 45 mph (advisory criteria) are possible.

With the increase in low-level moisture, Warm Air Advection, and additional deep- layer ascent, showers should begin to increase in coverage across primarily the northwest half of the area late morning and especially in the afternoon. If the amount of low-level moisture increases more than expected, the stratus may lower enough that some pockets of drizzle develop.




Finally, temps will be somewhat dependent on how much upstream snow cover is eradicated over the next 24 hours. Substantial heat/moisture fluxes over the remaining snowpack due to the strong flow and increasing moisture should make for a substantial reduction in the snow pack, if not completely remove it, by late Wednesday morning. With upstream temps well into the mid 60s as close as southern Illinois, the airmass will be fully supportive of temps pushing into the low to locally mid 50s provided the snow pack is substantially eroded by late morning. Otherwise, widespread temps in the upper 40s to around 50 can be expected. We’ll see if the the warmer temperatures delay the beginning of accumulating snow, especially on paved surfaces.

Weather Radar in northeast Illinois was clear at 3:15 p.m..

See also Arlingtoncardinal.com/clouds

The Weather Channel is going with a more southern track for the upcoming Winter Storm …

Winter Storm Watch URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 302 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022

ILZ010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-010-011- 160515- /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.A.0005.220217T0900Z-220218T0300Z/ Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee- Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook- Northern Will-Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton- Jasper- Including the cities of Dixon, DeKalb, Sycamore, Aurora, Elgin, Naperville, Wheaton, Downers Grove, Lombard, Carol Stream, Ottawa, Streator, La Salle, Mendota, Marseilles, Oswego, Yorkville, Plano, Morris, Coal City, Minooka, Kankakee, Bourbonnais, Bradley, Pontiac, Dwight, Fairbury, Watseka, Gilman, Paxton, Gibson City, Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park, Park Forest, Joliet, Bolingbrook, Plainfield, Mokena, Channahon, Manhattan, Wilmington, Crete, Peotone, Beecher, Gary, Hammond, Merrillville, Portage, Valparaiso, Chesterton, Roselawn, Kentland, Morocco, Rensselaer, and DeMotte 302 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING…

* WHAT…A period of freezing rain and sleet transitioning over to wet, heavy falling snow possible. Ice accumulations of one to two tenths and total snow accumulations of 3 to 7 inches possible.

* WHERE…Portions of northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana mainly along and south of I-88 and including much of the Chicago metro.

* WHEN…Freezing rain and sleet late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Snow and blowing snow Thursday morning through early Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS…Travel may become hazardous due to snow and ice covered roads and at times very low visibility including the Thursday morning and afternoon commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Heavy rates of snowfall greater than on inch per hour are possible. This combined with winds gusting as high as 40 mph could result in significant visibility reductions Thursday afternoon and early evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 O’HARE FORECAST … 

This Afternoon: Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Breezy, with a southeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to around 43 by midnight. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Wednesday: Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 51. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Rain before 4am, then rain, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet between 4am and 5am, then snow and sleet, possibly mixed with rain after 5am. Low around 29. Blustery, with a southwest wind 15 to 20 mph becoming north northeast after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Thursday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 30. Blustery, with a north wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 7. Blustery.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 31.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Breezy.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 27.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 20.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 46. Breezy.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Washington’s Birthday: A slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.

 LAKE TEMPS … 

SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
900 AM CST Tue Feb 15 2022

LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES…

CHICAGO SHORE………33.

CHICAGO CRIB……….33.

MICHIGAN CITY……….33.

&&

M IS FOR MISSING DATA THAT IS NORMALLY AVAILABLE.

THE MICHIGAN CITY WATER TEMPERATURE SENSOR IS LOCATED AT A WATER
INTAKE ONE MILE OFFSHORE AND 60 FEET BELOW WATER SURFACE. IT IS READ
EVERY DAY OF THE YEAR.

february.chicagoweatherstation.com

Arlingtoncardinal.com/radar

Chicago Weather Forecast for your MAC/PC/TABLET includes surrounding suburbs.

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