MORNING PREVIEW: Hi 56 Windy Weather, Traffic Wednesday, November 10, 2021

NWS FORECAST: KORD | KPWK | Forecast Graph O’Hare

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 O’HARE FORECAST … 

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 58. East southeast wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: A chance of showers before midnight, then a slight chance of showers after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 56. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday/Veterans Day: Showers, mainly before noon. Temperature falling to around 47 by 5pm. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph becoming west southwest in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. West southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

An unsettled forecast marks an end to a week-long spell of quiet days. The main weather forecast messages are:

* Dense fog early this morning in northwest Indiana into parts of east central Illinois

* Scattered showers this afternoon and evening in northern Illinois, mainly west and north of I-55

* Two to four hour period of soaking rain Thursday morning that will be in tandem with gusty synoptic winds, making for a slow morning commute in places

* Winds regularly gusting 30-35 mph, with spotty 40 mph possible, throughout Thursday, sending temperatures gradually downward

Early Wednesday morning, high pressure of 1023 mb is centered over the Great Lakes. While this has provided some drier air, southern Chicagoland has lingering higher dew points and allowed dense fog to develop last night, which has had some gradual westward expansion and this may continue as shown by some high resolution guidance, so it is possible that a couple more counties (namely Kankakee and Ford) will have to be added to the Dense Fog Advisory by daybreak, although there is high uncertainty as cirrus thickens and also a race against sunrise. Elsewhere, there is some fog in and near the Fox River Valley in northern Illinois, but the fog is limited compared to areal coverage, so there is no Advisory.

The high pressure will quickly be shoved away throughout today as an upper trough progresses and digs east-southeastward into the nation`s midsection, resulting in cyclogenesis in the Central Plains this afternoon. For our area, this will result in gradually increasing southeast surface winds under a thickening cloud canopy. The predictability of high temperatures is on the lower end today given the cool starting point and the clouds thickening at daybreak. Therefore NWS Chicago has trimmed forecast temperature highs a couple degrees down.

Ahead of the developing synoptic system, increasing warm and moist advection aloft will overspread the Mid-Mississippi River Valley this afternoon. Associated isentropic ascent in/near the low-level jet layer (~850-925 mb) will result in expanding low- level clouds across northwest and north central Illinois and likely spotty showers mid to late afternoon. These should increase in coverage into early evening as they expand north- northeast with the moisture transport and tap into 7-7.5 C/km mid- level lapse rates. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in north central Illinois but are more favored west of there along the low- level jet nose and increasing synoptic forcing. The 00Z HREF calibrated thunder also depicts this well. These showers should push north of the area by late evening with likely a gap in much activity in Chicagoland from 11 PM-4 AM with the warm sector moving northward, increasing southerly winds, and near steady overnight temperatures in the mid 50s.

DEW

Dew formed on vehicle metal as early as 6:30 p.m. Tuesday. Dew is moderate on grass and vehicle metal and glass Wednesday at 5:33 a.m.

Weather Radar shows very spotty precipitation southwest of Kankakee and between Ottawa and Rockford at 5:25 a.m.

Arlingtoncardinal.com/clouds | Arlingtoncardinal.com/temps

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WEATHER OBSERVATIONS

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