Tornado Outbreak Potential Indicated in Northwest Central, North Central Illinois, But Parts of Northeast Illinois at Risk According to Storm Prediction Center

A potential for outbreak tornados exist west of area, but much of northeast Illinois is also at risk of tornados on Saturday, March 28, 2020.

Arlington Heights, neighboring communities, and most of Cook County are likely to be under threat of severe thunderstorms and a possible tornado between 5PM and 11PM Saturday. The high temperature for Arlington Heights is forecast to be 62°F at 9 PM.

Meteorologist and storm chaser Reed Timmer is advising storm chasers to position near the Mississippi River to wait for peak activity of Super Cells to develop in northeast Iowa and northwest Illinois, but this doesn’t mean that tornados won’t appear in other parts of northern Illinois.

LIVE severe weather briefing from Reed Timmer on the potential for a TORNADO OUTBREAK today across eastern IA into northwestern IL. There are some forecast failure scenarios, like if the elevated complex of storms racing northeast into Missouri impedes the warm front progression through central Illinois.

The questions unanswered at this point in forecast include …

1) Will multiple tornados break out in northeast Iowa?
2) Will multiple tornados break out in northwest Illinois?
3) Will multiple tornados break out in north central Illinois?
4) Will lingering tornados spawn or long paths continue into northeast Illinois?

The answers to these questions depends on the speed of progression of the system from west to east and the extent and timing of the northward progression of the warm front from central Illinois.

At 8:30 a.m. St. Louis was 73°F, Decatur was 68°F, Champaign was 66°F, Joliet was 53°F, Arlington Heights was 48°F, Crystal Lake was 49°F, Round Lake Beach was 47°F, and Waukegan was 44°F.

At 10:15 a.m. St. Louis was 73°F, Decatur was 71°F, Champaign was 67°F, Joliet was 54°F, Arlington Heights was 49°F, Crystal Lake was 50°F, Round Lake Beach was 48°F, and Waukegan was 44°F.

Arlingtoncardinal.com/temps

Although the outlook for long-lasting tornados with a tornado outbreak is more likely in northwest Illinois and northeast Iowa, the Storm Prediction Center indicates Arlington Heights and the northwest suburbs are at the edge of 10% or 15% regions of “tornado probability within 25 miles” for Saturday, March 28, 2020.

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Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form in episodic arcs from midday through this evening across parts of central/eastern IA, eastern MO, IL, and IN, moving northward to northeastward generally at 45-60 kt. This will include supercells with tornadoes (some long-tracked and significant at EF2+ damage levels), large and sometimes very large hail, and occasionally severe non-tornadic gusts. Given the fast storm motions, any tornadoes that do form may persist for nearly as many miles as minutes of time — at least, until supercells cross more than a short distance into what should be a very sharp warm-frontal zone.

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
Day 1 Convective Outlook
0749 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook issued 7:49 AM CDT Saturday, March 28, 2020
SPC Day 1 Tornado Outlook issued 7:49 AM CDT Saturday, March 28, 2020.

Weather Radar (also nexrad.chgowx.com) shows thundershowers moving off to the east and over Lake Michigan.

A thunderstorm with severe cloud-to-ground lightning passed through Arlington Heights at about 1:30 a.m. Saturday.




 O’HARE FORECAST … 

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Areas of fog before 1pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 61. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers after 3am. Low around 46. Breezy, with an east southeast wind 15 to 25 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 51. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Breezy, with a west wind 15 to 20 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 52. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

 LAKE TEMPS … 

SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
903 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES…

CHICAGO SHORE……….44

CHICAGO CRIB……….43

MICHIGAN CITY……….39

&&

M IS FOR MISSING DATA THAT IS NORMALLY AVAILABLE.

THE MICHIGAN CITY WATER TEMPERATURE SENSOR IS LOCATED AT A WATER INTAKE ONE MILE OFFSHORE AND 60 FEET BELOW WATER SURFACE. IT IS READ
EVERY DAY OF THE YEAR.

march.chicagoweatherstation.com

Arlingtoncardinal.com/radar

Chicago Weather Forecast for your MAC/PC/TABLET includes surrounding suburbs.

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