TwitterACicon86x90vert
UPS mail box webbanner728x90
facebookACicon86x90vert
TV/Radio XFINITY | WOW! | WBBM | XRT | B96 | US99 | WDRV || FB CRIME | FIRE

   *** SCORES: BEARS | BLACKHAWKS | BULLS | CUBS | FIRE | WHITE SOX ***
YoutubeTwitterFacebookArlingtoncardinalYahoo! Google Bing Aol.ArlingtoncardinalTMZ Rotten Tomatoes ET Online Box Office MojoArlingtoncardinal Channel 9 WGN Channel 7 Chicago ABC Channel 5 Chicago NBC Channel 2 Chicago CBS Daily HeraldChicago Tribune Breaking NewsArlingtoncardinal Chicago Gas PricesFloridaCardinal.comGLOBALCONFLICTMAPS.COMArlingtoncards.com THE GUIDE

Timeline of Events Learned in Hubei Province in China, and Estimating Actual New Coronavirus COVID-19 Cases in Your Area

Sun March 29 2020 1:46 pm  https://www.arlingtoncardinal.com/?p=581699
Share The Cardinal -- Arlingtoncardinal.com Articles (E-Mail, Facebook, Twitter & More) 

CHICAGO BEARS RADIO -- WBBM Newsradio 780 "Traffic on the 8's"
| NEWS NOW | LOCAL NEWS | WEATHER NOW | US/World Chicago | Movies Cardinal Theater

Estimating actual COVID 19 cases (novel coronavirus infections) in an area based on deaths.

The Khan Academy demonstrates the reason for the lag between Coronavirus cases testing positive and the actual Coronavirus cases caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Wuhan, where the 2019–20 pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) began, is located in Hubei Province.

The following demonstration presumes the infection doubling rate is 5 days, and that the fatality rate is 1%.

The statistics show an average 5 days from infection to first symptoms, and shows roughly 15 days from onset of symptoms to death for the approximately 1% of the population that succumbs to the disease. The demonstration shows that when there is a death reported, the person possibly became infected 20 days prior to the day of death. If the mortality rate is 1%, then the number of people infected on that day could be 100. Of course it’s possible the person was the only person infected, but in a worst case scenario in a crowded city there could have been 100 people infected 20 days prior to that one person’s death.

If 100 people were infected, and the doubling rate is 5 days, there would be …

200 people newly infected 15 days before the person’s death,

400 people newly infected 10 days before the person’s death,

800 people newly infected 5 days before the person’s death,

1600 people newly infected on the day of the person’s death.

On the day of the person’s death there would now be a total of 3100 people infected.

If the death rate is still 1%, among the 1600 people infected, there would be 16 deaths 20 days after the first person died.

Keep in mind if hospitals become overrun, and staff become sick, the death rate could rise. If hospitals and staff with proper Personal Protection Equipment and adequate medical equipment and supplies are able to maintain good infection control, then the death rate would hopefully hold at 1%.

Also by proper social distancing practices, the doubling rate could be extended beyond 5 days and slow the rate of new infections, which would help keep the hospital from becoming overrun.

For official Coronavirus information …

coronavirus.gov

CDC | CDC 2019-NCOV

IDPH | IDPH Coronavirus

CCDPH | Novel Coronavirus

CHICAGO.GOV | /coronavirus

Khan Academy is a non-profit educational organization created in 2008 by Salman Khan. The Khan Academy publishes YouTube videos with tutorials on a variety of academic subjects. The organization produces short lessons in the form of videos. Its website also includes supplementary practice exercises and materials for educators. All resources are available for free to users of the website and app.

THANKS FOR READING CARDINAL NEWS …




^^ MOBILE? USE VOICE MIC ^^

 facebook … 

Please ‘LIKE’ the ‘Arlington Cardinal Page. See all of The Cardinal Facebook fan pages at Arlingtoncardinal.com/about/facebook …


Help fund The Cardinal Arlingtoncardinal.com/sponsor


THANKS FOR READING CARDINAL NEWS

CARDINAL NEWS POPULAR TRENDING ...

~ ALSO ~
Cardinal News Last Year Today's Date
CLEAR SKIES?  Weather Data for Sunday, March 29th, 2020

Tags: , , , ,    

IMPORTANT NOTE: All persons referred to as subjects, defendants, offenders or suspects, etc. are presumed to be innocent unless and until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law.


Try a more powerful search in the box below ... SEARCH BOX PRODUCES RESULTS FOR The Cardinal -- Arlingtoncardinal.com ...
(POWERFUL SEARCH for The Cardinal, which can be expanded on the results page.)

Where background Wikipedia info/photos are used, original work is modified and released under CC-BY-SA.

! MORE NEWS FAST!!! MOST RECENT: CRIMEBLOG | MOST RECENT: FIREBLOG | SUBMIT NEWS TIPS
::: Health, wellness and fitness gifts! CoolFitnessGifts.com ::: Cubs, Sox caps at ChicagoFanfare.com :::

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS BREAKING NEWS --The Cardinal -- Arlingtoncardinal.com is a breaking news blog with Arlington Heights & Chicagoland emphasis. Early breaking reports may prove to be inaccurate after follow-up investigation, which may or may not be updated in The Cardinal -- Arlingtoncardinal.com. For in-depth coverage, please also check the following links for network television, cable news networks and Chicago local media coverage ...

Daily Herald | Daily Herald -- Arlington Heights | YouTube.com/DailyHeraldClips
Today's headline videos: FOXNews Video | YouTube.com/FoxNews | Associated Press | The Cardinal
 
Video LOGO youtube Twitter Arlingtoncards facebook battery status Cardinal Calendar Search Batteries Plus RSS Help ...
All Headlines
crimeblog | fireblog
« EARLIER | SEARCH ARTICLES BY DATE -- Arlingtoncardinal.com/searchdate | LATER »

Comments for Arlingtoncardinal.com
COMMENTS are now available via one or more of our official Facebook pages. Comments no longer appear on the Arlingtoncardinal.com article per se. Please comment on Facebook.com/ArlingtonCardinal or check the other popular Arlington Cardinal Facebook pages at Arlingtoncardinal.com/about/facebook ...

SUBMIT CRIME TIPS ...
Anyone having information about serious crime in Arlington Heights should register on CitizenObserver.com and look for the anonymous TIP411 feature, or call Arlington Heights Crime Stoppers at 847-590-STOP (847-590-7867). Callers are guaranteed anonymity and may qualify for a cash reward of up to $1,000. Not a resident of Arlington Heights? Check CitizenObserver.com for availability for your community.

   Arlingtoncardinal.com/traffic | Traffic on Twitter

CARDINAL NEWS @EARLYREPORT | #ad▼

RAIN FORECAST (FOR RADAR, CLICK ⇩)


Weather radar map and info provided by windy.com
WEATHER | NEXRAD | INTERACTIVE RADAR | NWS+

WEATHER OBSERVATIONS O’HARE

RSS Cardinal Weather Center

CHICAGOFIREMAP.NET TWITTER

UPS mail box webbanner728x90