There are two upper troughs crossing through our area, and the first upper trough is not bringing much if any precipitation to north Cook County, McHenry County and Lake County. The Monday-to-Wednesday system is a diminishing trending storm for our area regarding forecasting.
CARDINAL NEWS is going with a 3-inch forecast over the 5-inch forecast for the totals for this storm.
After an Arlington Heights forecast this morning trending toward deeper snow (10 inches) for the upcoming winter storm, the accumulation forecast output this evening has decreased to about 3.5 inches (on grass) for the period from about 10 PM Monday to 5 PM Wednesday.
For those of you who don’t want heavy snow, you have three things going for you …
dry air to the north,
warm overnight temperatures forecast to hover around 35-36°F, and
a more southerly track of the storm.
Arlington Heights is forecast to have a rain/snow mix lasting about 22 hours from 10 PM Monday night until 11 PM Tuesday night, when all-snow conditions will begin. However, precipitation is looking less likely for overnight Monday night/Tuesday morning, according to radar observations. We are still under a Winter Storm Watch (latest activation 8:58 p.m.) calling for some snow totals in excess of 6 inches possible, but CARDINAL NEWS is expecting the National Weather Service might drop the Winter Storm Watch or might not make the changeover to a Winter Storm Warning when the time comes.
Only about 0.4 inch of snow is forecast for the initial snow/rain period (Monday 10 PM to Tuesday 11 PM), and then 3.1 inches of snow is forecast from 11 PM Tuesday until about 5 PM Wednesday. It is possible that only 2 inches will accumulate on streets, driveways and sidewalks in Arlington Heights because of temperatures holding above freezing until about 1:00 a.m. Wednesday. The highest snowfall rate is forecast to occur from about 6 AM to noon on Wednesday. It is possible these snowfall amounts could decrease even further as this storm continues to ‘undevelop’ into reality.
Monday afternoon the National Weather Service had Arlington Heights in part of the heaviest band forecast for Chicagoland with heavy, wet snow possible in excess of 6 inches, but that forecast is obsolete.
Winds will be gusty from the north-northeast during the storm. The highest gusts — about 32 MPH from the north-northeast — are forecast to occur between 11 AM to noon Wednesday.
At 7:50 p.m. Monday it was already looking as though there won’t be much precipitation in Arlington Heights until starting around 6:00 a.m. Tuesday in the form of mixed snow and rain.
Weather Radar (also nexrad.chgowx.com) showed rain precipitation over northeast Illinois with diminishing images throughout the evening from 7:00 pm. to 10:00 p.m. The rain was evaporating before it hit the ground.
Diminishing radar images near Arlington Heights are consistent with the drier air in northern regions. Most precipitation tonight is south of Interstate 80, and even those images were diminishing. No rain has fallen to the ground in Arlington Heights as of 10:00 p.m.
Lakeshore flooding and erosion possible Tuesday through Wednesday. Waves 8-14 feet possible across the area. pic.twitter.com/QX572NrGCL
— NWS Chicago (@NWSChicago) February 24, 2020
A blast of cold air is ahead for the Midwest, South and East this week: https://t.co/iqDxO8ptNJ pic.twitter.com/GYJSzpeoe5
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) February 24, 2020
O’HARE FORECAST …
Tonight: A chance of rain and snow, mainly before 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: Rain and snow likely, mainly after 10am. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Tuesday Night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after midnight. Low around 31. Blustery, with a north northeast wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Wednesday: Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 31. Blustery, with a north northeast wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 25.
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 25.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 12.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 28.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 16.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 37.
Sunday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.
Monday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43.
LAKE TEMPS …
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
0907 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2020
LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES…
CHICAGO SHORE……….38
CHICAGO CRIB……….36
MICHIGAN CITY……….33
&&
M IS FOR MISSING DATA THAT IS NORMALLY AVAILABLE.
THE MICHIGAN CITY WATER TEMPERATURE SENSOR IS LOCATED AT A WATER
INTAKE ONE MILE OFFSHORE AND 60 FEET BELOW WATER SURFACE. IT IS READ EVERY DAY OF THE YEAR.
february.chicagoweatherstation.com
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Winter Storm Watch
URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
858 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2020
ILZ006-013-014-022-251100-
/O.CON.KLOT.WS.A.0002.200225T2100Z-200227T0000Z/
Lake IL-DuPage-Cook-Will-
Including the cities of Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, North Chicago,
Highland Park, Mundelein, Gurnee, Round Lake Beach, Naperville,
Wheaton, Downers Grove, Elmhurst, Lombard, Carol Stream, Addison,
Chicago, Humboldt Park, Hyde Park, Lakeview, Lincoln Park,
Logan Square, Navy Pier, Joliet, and Bolingbrook
858 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2020
…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON…
* WHAT…Periods of moderate to briefly heavy snowfall with some
totals in excess of 6 inches possible, mainly over the southern
suburbs.
* WHERE…Will, Cook, Lake IL and DuPage Counties.
* WHEN…From Tuesday later afternoon through Wednesday
afternoon.
* IMPACTS…Travel could be impacted. The hazardous conditions
could impact parts of the Tuesday afternoon commute and more
likely the Wednesday morning commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.