Another bout of heavy showers beginning about 10:55 p.m. April 30, 2019 and forecast Tuesday and ending by 8:00 a.m. Wednesday is forecast to bring about one-half inch of rain. A surface low is approaching the area from the west tonight with an associated warm frontal boundary that will gradually lift northward towards the I-80 corridor by daybreak Wednesday. In the northwest suburbs, temperatures will start rising at about 2:00 a.m. from 48°F to 57°F by 7:00 a.m. and 61°F at 10:00 a.m. High temperature is forecast to reach 64°F from 1:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. Wednesday.
As night begins to fall, flooding becomes more deadly. Lots of rain still to come and flooding is likely in the Ozarks, eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Severe thunderstorms will be mixed in too in some spots. Best not to even venture out on to the roads tonight. #StayHome pic.twitter.com/lR8qsrK7r3
— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) May 1, 2019
SPC May 1, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook: SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019 Valid 010100Z – 011200Z …THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR… https://t.co/Vju95k7I3A pic.twitter.com/X1GJpKbVkD
— Cardinal Weather (@CardinalWeather) May 1, 2019
O’HARE FORECAST …
Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm between 11pm and 4am, then occasional showers after 4am. Patchy fog after 5am. Temperature rising to around 51 by 5am. East northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10am, then a chance of showers. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 64. East northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west southwest in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night: A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Thursday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a high near 57. East northeast wind around 5 mph, with gusts as high as 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.
Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 66.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 48.
Sunday: A chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 68.
Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 46.
Monday: A slight chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 63.
Monday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
Tuesday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61.
Flash Flood Watch April 30, 2019
National Weather Service Chicago IL
912 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019
Including the cities of Dixon, DeKalb, Aurora, Elgin, Wheaton,
Chicago, Ottawa, Oswego, Morris, Joliet, Kankakee, Pontiac,
Watseka, Paxton, Gary, Valparaiso, Morocco, Rensselaer,
912 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019 /1012 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2019/
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
The Flash Flood Watch continues for
* Portions of Illinois and Indiana, including the following
areas, in Illinois, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Ford, Grundy,
Iroquois, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall, La Salle, Lee, Livingston,
and Will. In Indiana, Benton, Jasper, Lake IN, Newton, and
* Through Wednesday morning
* An additional half inch to one inch of rain is expected with
localized amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible, especially south of
* Localized flash flooding, poor drainage and lowland flooding
will be possible, along with rises on rivers, streams, creeks,
and retention ponds.
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.
You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
LAKE TEMPS …
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
910 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019
LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPERATURES…
MICHIGAN CITY BUOY……….46.
M IS FOR MISSING DATA THAT IS NORMALLY AVAILABLE.
Chicago Weather Forecast for your MAC/PC/TABLET includes surrounding suburbs.
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 715 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019
.SHORT TERM… 301 PM CDT
Through Wednesday night…
We have opted to match up with our neighboring offices with a flood watch for tonight into Wednesday morning.
While the overall threat of widespread flash flooding will be fairly low, the showers and storms currently moving across the area are producing some moderate to heavy rain rates. We are seeing classic warm rain processes ongoing, with low centroids right around 0C. With this in mind, some flooding concerns exist, so we felt it prudent to add the watch in for mos of my northern IL and northwest IN counties through mid morning Wednesday as a couple of waves of heavy rainfall move up over the area.
In addition to the threat of heavy rainfall there will also continue to be a threat for some stronger storms late this afternoon and into the evening. This threat will mainly be confined to areas well south of the I-80 corridor. In these areas some hail will be possible with the strongest storms.
Following the ongoing wave of showers and storms, we will likely see a second wave of showers and storms lift northeastward across at least portions of the area later this evening and into the overnight hours. This as a low-level jet strengthens and noses into the area tonight in response the approach of an area of low pressure. This second wave of heavier rain could become more focused over eastern sections of the area. If this does occur, the threat of additional flash flooding will be reduced over my western CWA tonight.
As the surface low approaches the area from the west tonight an associated warm frontal boundary will gradually lift northward towards the I-80 corridor by daybreak Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty on how far north this boundary will reach into Wednesday morning, with the possibility of it not making it much north of I-80. This would keep much of far northern IL in the very low clouds and possible threat area of fog into Wednesday morning as the surface low begins to track overhead.
The surface winds should turn more westerly during the mid to late morning following the passage of the surface low and surface cold front. While some additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the cold frontal boundary, it appears the better threat of thunderstorm activity Wednesday will be to the south of I-80.
.LONG TERM… 202 PM CDT
Wednesday night through Tuesday…
We may experience another temporary reprieve from shower and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday evening/overnight as a briefly more subsident airmass builds in behind our latest departing shortwave disturbance. Another reinforcing frontal surge is expected to press southward along the lake and into the region overnight, ensuring moist northeasterly flow remains in the place through the region. While we`ve trimmed up precipitation chances a bit, it looks like we`ll remain socked in with low cloud cover and possibly some drizzle/mist in the post-frontal airmass.
Precipitation chances should ramp up once again towards Thursday morning as a glancing wave of ascent overspreads the region ahead of a 110+ kt jet streak arcing into the upper Midwest. Instability through this period will remain sufficient for at least isolated thunder wording in the gridded forecast, but chances will steadily be decreasing through the day as a stronger cold front finally push through the region, temporarily scouring this pesky moisture out. A stronger storm or two can`t be ruled out mainly east of I-55 from Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon given lingering fast mid- level flow.
By Friday, it actually appears as if we may be able to carry no precipitation chances across our entire CWA for a change as high pressure noses in within the briefly drier airmass. We`ll need to keep an eye out to our north and west, however, as sharp troughing and strong jet dynamics will be nearby along with lingering mid- level moisture. No signs in any guidance of convecting at this point, however. Things will stay pretty cool lakeside on Friday with persistent northeasterly flow off the lake. Highs may struggle to make much headway into the 50s at the immediate lakeshore, with upper 50s and lower 60s more prevalent inland.
By Friday night, sufficient low-level moisture may slosh northward to warrant some low-grade rain chances, although any coverage looks to remain pretty limited and generally confined south of I-80. The main story for Sunday and into the middle of next week is a return to the unsettled/active weather pattern as another series of shortwaves deliver several frontal intrusions to the region. At least through Tuesday, however, it looks like our thunder chances will remain fairly low with limited overall instability.
.AVIATION… For the 00Z TAFs…
Multiple concerns, including: -IFR to LIFR CIGs. -Potential for low visibilities (down to 1-2 sm) with periods of moderate to heavy rain late this evening through the overnight. -Potential for embedded TSRA at least in the vicinity of Chicago terminals late evening through overnight -Possibility for low visibilities in fog late tonight into Wednesday morning. -Wind directions Wednesday morning.
The terminals are in a relative lull early this evening, with the next round of moderate to heavy rain and embedded TSRA expected to arrive by about 04z. It`s possible the heaviest focuses south of some of the Chicago area terminals, but at this time have gone with the idea of likelihood of 1-2 mile visibility at times. Can`t rule out sub 1 mile visibility in the heaviest rain if it moves over the terminals. Fog development is uncertain and will be less likely in steady rain, and with this rain exiting east around 12z, confidence is low if VSBY will drop much behind it. Direct TSRA impacts at the terminals are also low confidence, but there is enough elevated instability in forecast to keep VCTS in through the overnight. Anticipating lower SHRA coverage on Wednesday and a primarily dry period Wednesday evening.
CIGs are mostly 300-700 feet as of 00z, though have shown some temporary improvement at GYY and MDW. CIGs at MDW and GYY should come back down within the next hour or two. Expecting 300-500 ft CIGs late this evening until possible improvement mid to late Wednesday morning. Improvement to lower MVFR may not occur until Wednesday evening for eastern sites, if it doesn`t occur earlier. Winds are also very tricky on Wednesday. Directions will be easterly and occasionally gusty tonight. A surface low will move overhead on Wednesday, with exact track of the surface low dictating directions. A farther south low track would shift winds back to north-northeast sooner than in the ORD/MDW TAF, with ORD possibly staying northerly from the morning onward.