ESPN Analytics writer Brian Burke confirms Jimmy Garoppolo’s strong performance in two starts for the New England Patriots in 2016, but advises there’s not enough data to be certain he’s an above-average NFL Quarterback.
Garoppolo averaged 7.9 yards per attempt and posted an 88.7 QBR in 2016 –excellent figures. Garoppolo played well for two starts while Tom Brady was suspended. Therefore his underlying potential is more likely to be good than if he had been mediocre in the same short span, according to Burke. There’s probably credit due for performing well from the start with his first NFL starting performances.
Garoppolo with only 63 attempts over two starts, and a total of 94 attempts through his three seasons offers significant uncertainty. Burke reports it would take 500 attempts averaging 7.9 YPA before analysts could confidently say a quarterback is above average, and it would take about 1,000 attempts, or about two full seasons, before we realistically could be confident that Garoppolo has the talent that many hope he might have, or guess he might have.
Sample of Top Pass Attempt Quarterbacks
Tom Brady’s YPA from 2000-2016 is 7.5.
Aaron Rodger’s YPA from 2005-2016 is 7.9.
Kurt Warner’s YPA from 1998-2009 is 7.9.
Tony Romo’s YPA from 2004-2016 is 7.9.
Bart Starr’s YPA from 1956-1971 is 7.8.
Peyton Manning’s YPA from 1998-2015 is 7.7.
Joe Montana’s YPA from 1979-1994 is 7.5.
Joe Namath’s YPA from 1965-1977 is 7.4.
Jay Cutler’s YPA from 2006-2016 is 7.2.
Jim McMahon’s YPA from 1982-1996 is 7.1.
Brett Favre’s YPA from 1991-2010 is 7.1
Mike Tomczak’s YPA from 1985-1999 is 6.9.
Doug Flutie’s YPA from 1986-2005 is 6.8.
Jim Harbaugh’s YPA from 1987-2000 is 6.7.
See more …
Pro-football-reference.com NFL Career Yards per Pass Attempt Leaders
Burke reports that there is even greater uncertainty when analyzing first-round draft picks, compared to analysis of Garoppolo’s performance so far.
There’s speculation that the Chicago Bears, Cleveland Brown, and San Francisco 49ers may be in a bidding war for Arlington Heights native Jimmy Garoppolo. Speculator’s are waiting to see what develops before the 2017 NFL Draft.
The 2017 NFL Draft at the 82nd annual meeting of National Football League (NFL) franchises is scheduled from April 27-29, 2017 in Philadelphia.
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“In Chicago, it’s either going to be Romo or Garoppolo.” https://t.co/5gYlIaxBCv (via @MoveTheSticks) pic.twitter.com/EalpCrtl1z
— NFL (@NFL) February 22, 2017
'I think Jimmy Garoppolo ends up with the Chicago Bears.' @StinkinGenius1
Brady will play forever, so Jimmy must go:https://t.co/lYp43KqzEz
— FOX Sports Radio (@FoxSportsRadio) February 14, 2017
. @tomecurran and @Jerod_Mayo51 rank top 5 landing spots for Garoppolo #Patriots #Browns #Bears #Texans #49ers https://t.co/r5q4QDHh4p
— CSN New England (@CSNNE) February 14, 2017
Will it be Garoppolo, Kizer, Cousins or Watson? @CEmma670 ranks the #Bears' best options at quarterback: https://t.co/vTUzPU7Aid pic.twitter.com/QcY4LMZuQg
— 670 The Score (@670TheScore) February 23, 2017