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Significant Snow Approaching, Too Early For Confidence in Accumulation Forecast

Wed February 20 2013 9:34 am  http://www.arlingtoncardinal.com/?p=59541
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Too early to determine accumulation forecast, but scientific weather models and weather forecasters indicate we might be receiving the most significant widespread snow storm of this 20012-2013 Winter Season.

One thing is certain; a winter storm will approach from the southwest, and the storm appears to be slowing down its approach.

The most significant snow in our area according to models is expected to be in the northwest suburbs and west suburbs and regions west and north of those suburbs. Some forecasters are claiming the heaviest snow will be west of Interstate 39.

A Winter Storm Watch is already in effect for central Illinois, including Peoria and rural areas as close as 40 miles southwest of Naperville. A Winter Storm Warning is already in effect for the St. Louis area and most of Missouri.

See National Weather Hazards Map …

See local Chicago Metro Map, including Watches, Warnings and Advisories …

The current weather model from the National Weather Service forecasts 4.1 inches accumulation for Arlington Heights between 6:00 p.m. Thursday and 11:00 a.m. Friday. The heaviest snow is expected to fall between 9:00 p.m. and 3:00 a.m. Thursday to Friday.

A dry surge of air is lurking in the area and will arrive at some point during the approach or during the involvement of the snow storm. If the dry air arrives early, that will mean less snow than the models are forecasting.

The Cardinal weather forecast will take a hunch that the storm system will slow down and drier air will arrive in the area earlier than expected — putting Arlington Heights in the 2-4 inch accumulation range.

The areas of Chicago near Oak Lawn area already forecast to have about 3.6 inches of accumulation — 0.5 inch less than the northwest suburbs.

Areas of Chicago near Zion, IL currently are forecast to receive about 3.1 inch accumulation.


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CLEAR SKIES?  Weather Data for Wednesday, February 20th, 2013

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